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图学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3): 537-547.DOI: 10.11996/JG.j.2095-302X.2022030537

• 工业设计 • 上一篇    下一篇

融合贝叶斯网络与前景理论的产品工业设计多阶段决策方法#br#

  

  1. 长安大学工程机械学院,陕西 西安 710064
  • 出版日期:2022-06-30 发布日期:2022-06-28
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(51805043);中央高校基金项目(300102259202);中国博士后基金项目(2019M663604);陕西省创新能力支撑计划项目(2020PT-014)

Multistage decision-making method of product industrial design by integrating Bayesian network and prospect theory

  1. School of Construction Machinery, Chang’an University, Xi’an Shaanxi 710064, China

  • Online:2022-06-30 Published:2022-06-28
  • Supported by:
    Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51805043); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central
    Universities, CHD (300102259202); China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2019M663604); Innovation Capability Support Project
    of Shaanxi Province of China (2020PT-014)

摘要:

针对产品工业设计决策中的不确定性与单一设计决策阶段难以准确描述全局决策结果的问题,引入三参数区间灰数对决策者的意见进行描述,构建贝叶斯网络(BN)模型学习用户群体对市场上现有成熟产品的决策信息,获得目标产品工业设计方案在各决策属性上的状态分布概率。为反映决策者对设计方案感知相对收益和损失的心理行为,融合前景理论(PT)与 BN 构建不同决策阶段产品工业设计方案的前景价值函数,以认知递进假设建立优化模型计算产品工业设计决策多阶段权重,通过综合前景价值计算判断设计方案优劣。以数控磨床工业设计方案决策的多阶段融合为例验证了方法的有效性,结果表明该方法能够引入用户群体的多阶段意见偏好估计设计决策属性的概率分布,以前景价值实现产品工业设计多阶段决策信息的有效集结,提高设计决策的全局性和科学性。

关键词: 产品工业设计, 设计决策, 贝叶斯网络, 前景理论, 多阶段

Abstract:

In view of the uncertainty in the decision-making process of product industrial design and the difficulty of accurately describing the result of overall decision-making through a single design decision-making stage, a three-parameter interval gray number was introduced to describe the opinions of decision makers, and a Bayesian network (BN) model was constructed to learn the users’ decision-making information about the existing mature products in the market. In doing so, the state distribution probability of the target product design schemes on each index could be obtained. To reflect the psychological behavior of decision-makers’ perception of the relative gains and losses about design schemes, the prospect theory (PT) and BN were integrated to construct the prospect functions of product industrial design schemes in different decision-making stages. In addition, an optimization model was built based on the cognitive progression assumption to calculate the weights of multistage decision-making information in product industrial design. The comprehensive prospect values were computed to help identify the pros and cons of the product industrial design schemes. The effectiveness of the method was verified through the case study of the multistage decision-making information fusing of numerical control grinder industrial design. Results show that the proposed method can help introduce the multistage opinion preference of users to estimate the probability distribution of design decision-making indexes, realize decision-making information fusion with prospect values of product industrial design schemes, and improve the quality of design decision-making in an overall and scientific way.

Key words: product industrial design, design decision-making, Bayesian network, prospect theory, multistage

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